Today in British politics

Nigel Farage was returned for Clacton yesterday on 63.3%, in a by-election he called on himself while under parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared gifts and a reported £5m donation. Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Restore Britain all stood aside, which left the novelty candidate Count Binface as runner-up on 26.9% and turnout down 13.6 points. It is a large number that tells you very little about a competitive contest.

The national picture is genuinely three-way. The rolling average has Labour on 25.4%, Reform UK on 23.6% and the Conservatives on 20.7% — a spread of under five points between first and third. Labour's recovery is the real movement of the summer: YouGov's latest has the party at 24%, eight points above the 16% it recorded as recently as May.

Andy Burnham, four weeks into the job, is the best-rated leader in both major approval series — net +16 with Opinium, 50% approval with Ipsos, and a 21-point lead over Farage on who could best run the country. His government is doing less well than he is: Ipsos finds the public divided on its direction and unconvinced on immigration and the cost of living.

On security, the official terrorism threat level remains Severe, meaning an attack is highly likely. Our own Russia assessment sits at 45 out of 100 — sustained grey-zone pressure rather than a warning of imminent attack, with the Ukraine war still absorbing most Russian conventional capacity.