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The Great Hall of the People, Beijing

State threat · Our assessment

China

Broad espionage and cyber activity, but no top-tier UK designation.

N509FZ / CC BY-SA 4.0

Photograph shows the Great Hall of the People, Beijing: a landmark, chosen because it identifies the country without editorialising about it.

Pressure on the UK

China

37/100
ModeratePersistent hostile activity, largely routine in scale.Our assessment

Espionage alerts to parliamentarians, a Five Eyes bulletin on intelligence officers posing as recruiters, prosecutions for foreign interference, and continual cyber activity. What holds the score below Russia and Iran is that the UK has not placed China on the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, having considered specifying selected state-linked bodies instead.

  1. Operations on UK soil

    22/100 · 25% weight

    We hold no sourced evidence of Chinese-directed sabotage, arson or plots against people in the United Kingdom. What is documented concerns approaches to individuals and interference in institutions, which is scored under the next factor. This is a real difference from Russia and Iran rather than a gap we have failed to fill, and it is the main reason China scores below both on the composite.

    • Espionage and interference in UK institutions

      60/100 · 20% weight

      MI5 issued an espionage alert to parliamentarians in November 2025 over Chinese intelligence officers approaching them through professional networking sites. In June 2026 the Five Eyes partners issued a joint bulletin warning that Chinese military intelligence officers pose as recruiters and consultants for cover companies registered outside China, targeting people with access to classified or privileged information. Parliament debated foreign interference arrests connected to China in March 2026.

    • Cyber operations against UK networks

      55/100 · 15% weight

      Chinese state-linked cyber activity against UK institutions is described by the government as continual, and directed at obtaining information on UK policy and on individuals of interest.

    • Military pressure on UK territory and infrastructure

      10/100 · 15% weight

      We hold no sourced evidence of Chinese naval or air activity against UK waters, UK airspace or the undersea infrastructure Britain depends on. Chinese military activity of concern to the UK is documented in the Indo-Pacific, which this factor does not measure. It asks about pressure on UK territory.

      • Official UK designation and posture

        30/100 · 15% weight

        China is not on the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme. Russia and Iran were specified from 1 July 2025; the government has repeatedly declined to add China, which is the clearest official signal available that it does not place China in the same category.

      • Direction of travel

        55/100 · 10% weight

        The MI5 director general said in October 2025 that state threat activity had risen by around a third in a year and was now comparable to, or greater than, the terrorism caseload. The Five Eyes bulletin of June 2026 points the same way.

      Disputed

      China's government has lodged formal representations with the UK rejecting the espionage allegations.

      SourceGlobalSecurity, China lodges stern representations with the UK over espionage claims (19 November 2025)
      Assessed 16 August 2026 · weights sum to 100

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      This score is ukpoliticshub's own editorial assessment. It is not produced, endorsed or reviewed by the UK government, JTAC, MI5 or any intelligence agency. The only official figure on this page is the terrorism threat level above.