Pressure on the UK
Russia
Survey and submarine activity around UK undersea cables, a high tempo of naval transits shadowed in UK waters, and continuing sabotage and cyber activity. Not a warning of imminent attack: the Ukraine war still absorbs most Russian conventional capacity, and no UK national threat level has been raised on account of Russia.
Enhanced tier, Foreign Influence Registration Scheme
Specified from 1 July 2025 — one of two states so designated. Any arrangement to act in the UK for the Russian state must be registered, commercial or political.
Ukraine trajectory and Russian force commitment
28/100 · 20% weight
The war continues to absorb the bulk of Russian conventional capacity. Two short truces in 2026 — 32 hours at Orthodox Easter in April, and 9–11 May for Victory Day — were humanitarian pauses, not settlements. Talks remain stalled on territory and Western security guarantees. A negotiated end would free capacity and raise this score materially; that has not happened.
Undersea infrastructure and the shadow fleet
58/100 · 22% weight
UK defence officials say Russian submarines have been deployed alongside the survey vessel Yantar — part of Russia's GUGI deep-sea unit — to map and potentially sabotage cables and pipelines near the UK, including the Britain–Ireland gas interconnector. The government has stood up an Undersea Infrastructure Security Oversight Board in response. Russia's embassy calls the claims "completely groundless".
Naval and air activity around the United Kingdom
40/100 · 15% weight
The Royal Navy was activated 116 times during 2025–26 to shadow 61 Russian warships and 28 Russian merchant vessels inside the UK Exclusive Economic Zone, under Operation ADDISON — against a roughly 30% rise in Russian naval activity over two years. High tempo, but this is monitored, routine transit rather than escalation.
Sabotage, arson and espionage on UK soil
48/100 · 18% weight
A continuing pattern of state-linked recruitment of proxies for arson and surveillance in the UK and across Europe, prosecuted through the courts. Serious and sustained, but disrupted repeatedly rather than escalating in scale.
Cyber operations against critical national infrastructure
50/100 · 15% weight
Persistent Russian state and state-tolerated criminal activity against UK energy, water, health and telecoms networks. Steady-state pressure rather than a step change in the last quarter.
Official UK posture and rhetoric
40/100 · 10% weight
Ministers have moved to explicit public attribution — "We see you, we know what you're doing, and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country" — and stood up new oversight machinery. But no formal national threat level has been raised on account of Russia, which is the strongest available signal that the UK does not assess an attack as imminent.
Disputed
Russia's embassy in London has called the undersea-cable allegations "completely groundless".