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The walls of the Moscow Kremlin and the Spasskaya Tower

State threat · Our assessment

Russia

Sustained grey-zone pressure on infrastructure, at sea and online.

Jorge Láscar from Melbourne, Australia / CC BY 2.0

Photograph shows the walls of the Moscow Kremlin and the Spasskaya Tower: a landmark, chosen because it identifies the country without editorialising about it.

Pressure on the UK

Russia

55/100
ElevatedSustained grey-zone pressure across several domains.Our assessment

Survey and submarine activity around UK undersea cables, a high tempo of naval transits shadowed in UK waters, and continuing sabotage and cyber activity. Not a warning of imminent attack: the Ukraine war still absorbs most Russian conventional capacity, and no UK national threat level has been raised on account of Russia.

Official figure

Enhanced tier, Foreign Influence Registration Scheme

Specified from 1 July 2025: one of two states so designated. Any arrangement to act in the UK for the Russian state must be registered, commercial or political.

SourceSullivan & Cromwell, UK Foreign Influence Registration Scheme goes live (1 July 2025)

  1. Operations on UK soil

    48/100 · 25% weight

    A continuing pattern of state-linked recruitment of proxies for arson and surveillance in the UK and across Europe, prosecuted through the courts. Serious and sustained, but disrupted repeatedly rather than escalating in scale.

  2. Espionage and interference in UK institutions

    35/100 · 20% weight

    The documented Russian activity we hold concerns recruitment of proxies for physical operations rather than penetration of Parliament, government or universities. We hold no UK assessment of Russian institutional recruitment comparable to the MI5 alert issued about Chinese approaches to parliamentarians. Scored below China on that basis, not on a judgement that it does not happen.

  3. Cyber operations against UK networks

    58/100 · 15% weight

    Persistent Russian state and state-tolerated criminal activity against UK energy, water, health and telecoms networks. Steady-state pressure rather than a step change in the last quarter. Through 2026 the activity has been repeatedly attributed on the record rather than inferred, and in July the UK sanctioned the FSB's 16th Centre and the Turla group for cyber espionage and sabotage against European networks.

  4. Military pressure on UK territory and infrastructure

    64/100 · 15% weight

    UK defence officials say Russian submarines have been deployed alongside the survey vessel Yantar (part of Russia's GUGI deep-sea unit) to map and potentially sabotage cables and pipelines near the UK, including the Britain–Ireland gas interconnector, and the government has stood up an Undersea Infrastructure Security Oversight Board in response. Separately the Royal Navy was activated 116 times during 2025–26 to shadow 61 Russian warships and 28 merchant vessels inside the UK Exclusive Economic Zone. The naval activity is monitored routine transit; the undersea mapping is not. Russia's embassy calls the cable claims “completely groundless”. On 27 August 2026 the Russian Foreign Ministry threatened for the first time to strike UK military targets “inside and outside Ukraine”, after Britain declassified Storm Shadow component designs for Ukrainian production. This is declared posture rather than action, and nothing has been struck, which is why the score moves well short of the top of the band.

  5. Official UK designation and posture

    74/100 · 15% weight

    Russia is a specified foreign power under the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme, one of only two states so designated. Ministers have moved to explicit public attribution: “We see you, we know what you're doing, and we will not shy away from robust action to protect this country”, and stood up new oversight machinery. No national threat level has been raised on account of Russia, which is the strongest available signal that the UK does not assess an attack as imminent. On 13 July 2026 the UK designated 24 individuals and entities over Russian cyber operations, alongside the EU's largest round of individual designations since 2022.

  6. Direction of travel

    70/100 · 10% weight

    Russian naval activity around the UK is up roughly 30% over two years, and the government has created new machinery to watch undersea infrastructure. Against that, the war in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of Russian conventional capacity, and two short truces in 2026 were humanitarian pauses rather than settlements. Intensifying around Britain specifically, without a step change. That trajectory sharpened in August 2026: an explicit threat against UK military targets, Britain told it was “one step away” from legal complicity and warned of “catastrophic consequences”.

Disputed

Russia's embassy in London has called the undersea-cable allegations "completely groundless".

SourceBreaking Defense, UK accuses Russia of covert submarine operation threatening undersea cables (1 April 2026)
Assessed 29 August 2026 · weights sum to 100

The other threat assessments

All six, and the official terrorism level

Russia in the news

2 stories in the feeds we read

These update on their own. The assessment above does not. It was last reviewed on 29 August 2026, and only changes when someone changes it. 2 of the stories below were published since then and have not yet been weighed against the six questions.

Headlines are the publishers’ own and link to their reporting. We do not rewrite them, and their presence here is not our endorsement of the framing. More on Russia

On the record

What we have moved, and when

Scores move when a person moves them, never because coverage spiked. Each change below says what it was, what it became and what changed our mind.

  1. 29 August 2026

    Military pressure on UK territory and infrastructure

    5264 raised to 64

    Russia threatened for the first time to strike UK military targets inside and outside Ukraine, after Britain declassified Storm Shadow component designs for Ukrainian production. Moved well short of the top of the band because this is declared posture, not action: nothing has been struck, and scoring a threat as though it were an attack is what discredits an index.

    SourceAl Jazeera, Russia warns it could target UK in response to Kyiv firing British missiles (27 August 2026)

  2. 29 August 2026

    Direction of travel

    5570 raised to 70

    The August escalation is one-directional: an explicit threat against UK military targets, Britain told it is one step from legal complicity, and warnings of catastrophic consequences.

    SourceAl Jazeera, Russia warns it could target UK in response to Kyiv firing British missiles (27 August 2026)

  3. 29 August 2026

    Official UK designation and posture

    6874 raised to 74

    The UK designated 24 individuals and entities over Russian cyber operations in July, alongside the EU's largest round of individual designations since 2022. Official posture hardened materially.

    SourceHelp Net Security, EU and UK blacklist Russia's cyber operators (13 July 2026)

  4. 29 August 2026

    Cyber operations against UK networks

    5058 raised to 58

    Activity through 2026 has been attributed on the record rather than inferred, including the sanctioning of the FSB's 16th Centre and Turla for espionage and sabotage against European networks.

    SourceHelp Net Security, EU and UK blacklist Russia's cyber operators (13 July 2026)

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This score is ukpoliticshub's own editorial assessment. It is not produced, endorsed or reviewed by the UK government, JTAC, MI5 or any intelligence agency. The only official figure on this page is the terrorism threat level above.