Skip to content
ukpoliticshub

AI answers, built only from this site’s own sourced pages and returned with the citations attached. If we don’t hold something, it says so rather than guessing.

HMS Kent, a Royal Navy Type 23 frigate, under way at sea

National security

Threats & alliances

One official figure, set by the government and never adjusted. Then six assessments of our own, each showing its working.

LA(Phot) Owen King / OGL v1.0

UK terrorism threat level

Official figure

Severe

An attack is highly likely.

  1. Low

    an attack is highly unlikely

  2. Moderate

    an attack is possible but not likely

  3. Substantial

    an attack is likely

  4. Severe

    an attack is highly likely

  5. Critical

    an attack is highly likely in the near future

Set by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) and MI5. Scope: United Kingdom (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). We publish it exactly as issued and never adjust it.

SourceGOV.UK — Terrorism threat levels (14 August 2026)

Pressure on the UK

State threats

Our assessment

Our own weighted assessments, not government figures. Higher is worse, and scored conservatively — documented grey-zone activity is not a warning of imminent attack. Open any one for the full working.

What the UK can rely on

Alliances

Our assessment

Higher is better. Treaty commitments and institutional ties score above political warmth, because they survive a change of government.

This score is ukpoliticshub's own editorial assessment. It is not produced, endorsed or reviewed by the UK government, JTAC, MI5 or any intelligence agency. The only official figure on this page is the terrorism threat level above.