Pressure on the UK
Iran
More than twenty Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and residents since 2022, run substantially through criminal proxies. Iran sits alongside Russia on the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme. The score is held down by the disruption record: these plots are known because they were stopped.
Enhanced tier, Foreign Influence Registration Scheme
Specified from 1 July 2025, alongside Russia. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not proscribed as a terrorist organisation, which remains a live argument in Parliament.
Operations on UK soil
65/100 · 25% weight
MI5 and police have responded to more than twenty Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents since the start of 2022. Iranian state actors have made extensive use of criminals as intermediaries (from international drug traffickers to low-level offenders), which widens reach while blurring attribution. The highest score any state carries on this factor.
Espionage and interference in UK institutions
30/100 · 20% weight
The documented Iranian activity in the UK is overwhelmingly directed at individuals (dissidents, journalists and Jewish and Israeli-linked targets) through criminal proxies, rather than at recruiting inside Parliament, government or universities. Scored well below China on that basis.
Cyber operations against UK networks
38/100 · 15% weight
Iranian cyber activity against UK targets is documented but sits well below the scale of Russian or Chinese operations against UK critical national infrastructure.
Military pressure on UK territory and infrastructure
12/100 · 15% weight
We hold no sourced evidence of Iranian naval or air activity against UK waters, UK airspace or UK undersea infrastructure. Iranian military activity of concern sits in the Gulf and the wider region, which this factor does not measure.
Official UK designation and posture
70/100 · 15% weight
Iran has been a specified foreign power under the enhanced tier of the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme since 1 July 2025: one of only two states so designated, alongside Russia. The highest designation score available short of a raised national threat level.
Direction of travel
52/100 · 10% weight
The UK declined to support offensive US and Israeli military action against Iran in late February 2026, then said in early March that it would provide defensive support to partners in the region. Regional escalation raises the risk of spillover onto UK soil, but the plot tempo reported by MI5 has not visibly stepped up in the period since.